Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 70 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

departs 10:18 PM AKST · arrives 10:59 PM AKST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ 10pm departures from JNU are usually not late

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SIT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?