DL 1439 · BOS → TPA

took off 4:00 PM ET · expected to land 6:56 PM ET (scheduled 3:25 PM ET → 6:53 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1439 · BOS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?