Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 1439 · BOS → TPA
departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 14%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BOS that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.45 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.