Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1507 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

DL 1507 · ATL → TRI

departs 1:09 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TRI?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into TRI at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TRI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,967 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1507 · ATL → TRI

Odds over time

How late will it get to TRI?