Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 1615 · GEG → MSP
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 11:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 11/9 10%
Tue 11/10 7%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 14%
Fri 11/13 17%
Sat 11/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
GEG is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from GEG are usually not late
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.