Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

DL 1865 · ORD → LGA

departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1865 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?