Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1865 · ORD → LGA
departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 56%
Sat 11/14 32%
Sun 11/15 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±24 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.