DL 2264 · MSP → TPA

departs 1:19 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↑ 1pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2264 · MSP → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?