Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2409 · LGA → MSP
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 11/10 10%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 25%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.