Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2476 · DTW → DCA
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 11/9 11%
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 17%
Sat 11/14 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.