Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

DL 2511 · ROC → ATL

departs 2:10 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from ROC are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2511 · ROC → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?