Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2511 · ROC → ATL
departs 12:26 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 11/10 8%
Wed 11/11 9%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at ROC that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.14 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.