DL 2580 · MSP → SAT

took off 3:06 PM CT · expected to land 5:34 PM CT (scheduled 2:20 PM CT → 5:11 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

89% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
40%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2580 · MSP → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?