Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3850
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 3850 · MSP → FSD
departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into FSD at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.