Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 3981 · ATW → MSP
departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 11/10 14%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from ATW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.