Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4109 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

OO 4109 · ATL → SBN

departs 7:17 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4109 · ATL → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?