Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4109 · ATL → SBN
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11 17%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at ATL that day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.