Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
OO 4989 · ORD → LEX
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13 36%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.