Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4989 · ORD → LEX
departs 9:24 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 11/11 39%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 36%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.