UA 1227 · EWR → SFO

departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 4:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1227 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?