UA 1704 · MSP → DEN

took off 5:38 PM CT · expected to land 6:07 PM MT (scheduled 4:54 PM CT → 6:10 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1704 · MSP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?