UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?