Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2668 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2668 · ORD → DCA

departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 2:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2668 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?