UA 282 · IAD → SNA

took off 6:04 PM ET · expected to land 8:11 PM PT (scheduled 5:44 PM ET → 8:24 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 282 · IAD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?