Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 282 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 282 · IAD → SNA

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SNA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 282 · IAD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?