UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

took off 5:15 PM CT · landed 7:28 PM PT (scheduled 4:40 PM CT → 7:26 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?