Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

departs 4:37 PM CT · arrives 7:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±12 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
44%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SFO (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?