UA 658 · MSP → ORD

took off 5:41 PM CT · expected to land 6:38 PM CT (scheduled 4:39 PM CT → 6:18 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
84%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 658 · MSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?