Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1109 · MCO → MDW
departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.