Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1109 · MCO → MDW
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 6:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11 23%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.