Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1794 · BWI → BNA
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 4,500 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.