Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1794 · BWI → BNA
departs 2:37 PM ET · arrives 3:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 17%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.