Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1936 · HOU → DCA
departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.