Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2500 · SFO → BNA
departs 11:32 AM PT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 45%
Fri 11/13 59%
Sun 11/15 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.