Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2835 · MCO → PHX
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 17%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.