Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2835 · MCO → PHX
departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 17%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.