WN 3218 · OAK → LGB

departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 2:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3218 · OAK → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?