Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 416 · AUS → SJC
departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 26%
Fri 11/13 29%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.