Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 4853 · AUS → MSP
departs 2:47 PM CT · arrives 5:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.