Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Yesterday

WN 8604 · BWI → DCA

departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DCA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8604 · BWI → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?