9E 5401 · MSP → MCI

departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5401 · MSP → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?