Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1463 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 1463 · CLT → LGA

departs 1:33 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±21 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1463 · CLT → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?