AA 1891 · MIA → RDU

departs 1:39 PM ET · arrives 4:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

RDU (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1891 · MIA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?