Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3098 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 3098 · SVD → MIA

departs 3:49 PM AST · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SVD

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SVD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3098 · SVD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?