AA 3112 · FDF → MIA

departs 4:09 PM AST · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FDF (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3112 · FDF → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?