Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 591 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 591 · CLT → DEN

departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 591 · CLT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?