Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1404 · CHS → LGA
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 55%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±21 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at CHS that day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.