Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1454 · DTW → DCA
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,567 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.