Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1514 · MIA → JFK
departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 41%
Sat 11/14 32%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±12 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.