Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1862 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

DL 1862 · SFO → LAX

departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 1:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling9,567 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1862 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?